We’ve just endured the worst year in recent human history. Worldwide economic growth fell by 4.3%, the biggest drop since the Great Depression. 150 million people were pushed into extreme poverty. The UK and Italy saw the largest number of excess deaths since World War II, while the US’s death toll is greater than World War II, Vietnam and Korea - combined.
Despite this, we’re on the precipice of one of the greatest periods of euphoria in our lifetimes. Some have preemptively dubbed this the roaring 20s part 2. I prefer to call it the Post-Pandemic Party, the Freedom Fiesta, the Covid Comeback or the Moderna Miracle. Regardless of the name, there are a number of signals that indicate we’re about to enter uncharted territory.
Covid vaccines are having a dramatically positive impact. Countries that have started widespread vaccinations are seeing spectacular drops in cases and deaths. This is one of the scientific achievements of our lifetimes. Before Covid the fastest a new vaccine had been developed was the mumps vaccine in the 1960s. That took 4 years. By contrast, the Pfizer vaccine took less than a year to be developed and approved.
Economic growth is picking up steam across the world. The IMF recently revised its forecasts upwards for growth worldwide. Goldman Sachs is predicting that the US economy will grow by 8% in 2021, the highest in 70 years. Vaccinated people are traveling internationally again or indicate that they will soon. This is a lifeline for many countries that heavily rely on tourism and will further aid economic recovery.
Saving rates are at historic highs for many groups, particularly white-collar workers. Due to huge price inflation in assets like houses and stocks, many are also feeling very economically optimistic. Hopefully (but not certainly) once restrictions are lifted these workers will go out and spend, reducing inequality and helping workers in industries like hospitality who have been most affected during the last year #tipthebill.
The shift to remote work is leading to unprecedented opportunities for people with disabilities or severe illnesses. This is a group that has traditionally been chronically underemployed given their education levels. Now they’re able to access more jobs than ever - no longer needing to worry about their office environments or having to navigate dangerous commutes to arrive at work.
We might even see a golden era of creativity. It usually takes several months to two years for musicians to produce an album due to touring and album promotion. My unscientific prediction is that after a year locked up and unable to tour, a glut of amazing new songs have been written and are currently being fine-tuned by producers, ready to be unleashed in the coming months. The trend isn’t just limited to music, with millions having entered the creator economy during the pandemic.
This is not to say we’re about to enter Nirvana. There are 101 things that could shake this euphoria. Rising food prices are threatening millions, geopolitical tensions are boiling over across the world, our climate emissions are going back up after falling substantially in 2020. The Covid catastrophe unfolding in India is evidence that many countries are far from getting things under control.
Despite the joy of returning to normal life, the tough reality is that Covid and the associated lockdowns have caused a mental health crisis affecting millions across the world, the effects of which will be felt for years to come. The K-shaped recovery we see in many countries is likely to worsen economic inequality. If history is any guide, this has the potential to cause serious social unrest.
Yet let’s not lose sight of what’s on the horizon. After a horrible year let’s bask in the elation of relative normality. The range of emotions is going to be intense. Think of the joy as we hug and hold our loved ones again. Imagine the feeling of freedom from the little things, like sitting in a bar with friends or seeing a concert.
Spotted in Mexico City: ‘We will hug each other again’
Let’s also use this moment as a catalyst. Despite numerous missteps, as a species we’ve been able to overcome this challenge.
At the height of the crisis, there were amazing acts of kindness for our fellow humans. The spectacular speed of vaccine development shows that when our minds are trained towards a common goal, we can succeed in solving our most-pressing issues.
The history books will mark 2020 as one of our toughest. But what comes next is still to be written. My hope is that 2021 will mark the year humanity came out from the darkness with renewed confidence in its own ability. Let’s get vaccinated, hug our loved ones, and then get to work helping to build a better tomorrow. To borrow from Churchill: ‘We are still masters of our fate. We are still captains of our souls’.
A big thanks to Kavir Kaycee, Ryan J. Williams, Nanya and Steven Ovadia for their help editing and collaborating.
Nice article mate! Excellently written and touches on lots of different topics too